Credit Suisse’s London-based global strategy team have been cautious on stocks since February — and they still are. They say recession risk remains very high and there isn’t upside on their fair value models. Importantly, the risk to corporate earnings remains high. “Earnings revisions have started to fall and 71% of the time when this happens, markets fall over the next quarter. Current PMIs imply significant further downside to revisions. We see clear risk of negative EPS in 2023,” said strategists led by Andrew Garthwaite.
As a general rule, hard numerical analyses are always better than anyone’s opinions, given the natural deceptions swirling in the investment environment. To the extent earnings revisions will reflect a more optimistic sentiment making the shift to a pessimistic outlook in the face of reality, you have to pay attention to it.