The Conference Board measure of CEO sentiment showed that 57% of respondents expect inflation to come down “over the next few years” but the economy to sustain a “very short, mild recession.” Those results reflect an overall pessimistic tone from the quarterly gauge, as the board’s Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 42, a steep drop from the first quarter’s 57 and the lowest since the early days of the Covid pandemic.
It is all going to depend on fuel prices and fuel supply, which at present shows no signs of future loosening. If in two years we are looking at nine dollar gasoline, I would not expect the recession to be minor or short. If supply suddenly flooded the market, then it would be.
The puzzle is OPEC, which seems to loosen and tighten the spigots according to oblique measures, related perhaps in some way to hidden political alliances and/or internal investment strategies, of their own, or of whoever they are allied with in a broader strategy.
Again, if you are not a big player, you are forced to operate conservatively and cautiously.