Ongoing pilot shortages and severe weather have cancelled thousands of flights across the nation over the past week.

Unfortunately the pilot shortage issue is not going away any time soon, according to the President of the Southwest Pilot Association union, Casey Murray.

Murray said, “This is going to go for the rest of the decade, and it’s only going to get worse. And we’re seeing less and less people move into the pilot ranks at the bottom. I like to call it ‘cradle to career.’ And it’s taking longer to get there, and fewer and fewer people are entering our profession.”

The bottleneck on new pilots can be seen by how in 2021, the FAA only issued 4,928 new Airline Transport Pilot Certificates, less than half the number they had projected.

Of the existing pilots who have entered the field, a number were furloughed due to the pandemic. And once a pilot is inactive, certain certifications will lapse, and they then need time to get recertified.

Murray continued, “As far as the pipeline goes, everyone is hiring right now. It’s kind of a perfect storm that’s going on with pilots having the choice for the first time ever as to where they go. They’re getting multiple offers from multiple major airlines. But again, [the shortage] is going to go for the rest of the decade, and it’s only going to get worse.”

Meanwhile there are contract negotiations going on, which are further roiling the pilot pool. At Southwest airlines, 1,300 pilots have taken to picket lines as union leaders work with management to hash out a new contract.

Murray explained that while pilots want higher salaries, “we’ve also lost 20,000 days off in the past year due to involuntarily coming in to work, and our pilots voluntarily do that all the time. We’ve given 164,000 days to Southwest. We are Southwest Airlines. We do more with less. So we want that recognized, and we want Southwest to come to the table and get something sooner rather than later so that this pilot shortage doesn’t affect us in the future and affect network and revenue opportunities for Southwest.”

And it is not just Southwest coping with union negotiations. United Airlines just finished its negotiations, giving up a 14% pay increase and paid maternity leave for pilots. Still other airlines are in the midst of negotiations.

Murray said, “We’re kind of at an inflection point right now in the industry, as far as pilots go. There is a critical shortage that’s going on. All of the major airlines right now are negotiating contracts. And with a limited number of pilots out there to be hired, whomever has the best contract is really going to be able to recruit and retain the best possible pilots there are.”

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