CEO Jamie Dimon made waves with a conference call he had with some of JP Morgan’s wealthier clients.

On the call, Dimon noted the economy appeared to be “strong,” however he said there were “storm clouds” on the horizon, including Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, high oil prices, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. While ominous, the statement was a tempering of his June statement that there was an economic “hurricane” bearing down on the economy.

He said, “Consumers’ balance sheets are in good shape. Businesses are equally in good shape. When you forecast, you have to think differently. It is a bad mistake to say, ‘Here is my single-point forecast.'”

Dimon estimated there was a 10% chance the Federal Reserve would be able to negotiate a “soft landing.” He estimated there was a 20-30% chance of a “harder landing” or a “mild recession,” there was a 20-30% chance of a “harder recession,” and a 20-30% chance of “something worse.”

Dimon first referenced “storm clouds” in April, before his assessment grew to the more dire economic “hurricane” in June, saying, “I’m going to change the storm clouds out there. Look, I’m an optimist, I said there are storm clouds, they’re big storm clouds: It’s a hurricane. You better brace yourself. JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”

Dimon had gone on to say, “Right now, it’s kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy or Andrew or something like that.”

Since then the economic outlook has grown more complex, with strong jobs numbers, lower gas prices, and robust consumer savings supporting consumer demand, but rising inflation, an aggressive Federal Reserve, and troubling data out of China threatening a global economic slow down.

In addition data showing two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth have clashed with high employment numbers to leave even the most seasoned economists arguing whether or not we have already entered a recession.

Photo of Jamie Dimon courtesy of Wikipedia