Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), says that as oil supplies are curtailed after OPEC+’s recent production cuts, and the market for liquified natural gas (LNG) is as tight as ever, the world in heading into “the first truly global energy crisis,” this winter.

Increasing LNG imports by Europe as well as a growing Chinese demand for the fuel will tighten the market even more next year, according to the IEA chief. Speaking at the Singapore International Energy Week on Tuesday, Birol noted only 20 billion cubic meters of new LNG capacity are scheduled to become available next year.

He noted that the recent decision by OPEC+ to cut production by 2 million barrels per day was “risky” given the IEA is predicting a growth in global demand of 2 million barrels per day just this year. Birol said, “[It is] especially risky as several economies around the world are on the brink of a recession, if that we are talking about the global recession…I found this decision really unfortunate.”

He also noted that skyrocketing energy costs are already affecting purchasing as they drive record inflation. And the response of central banks across the globe, such as the Federal Reserve, threaten to drive the entire global economy into a recession which would crush the demand for fuel.

Birol said he believes that if the weather remains mild, Europe may make it through the winter only somewhat battered, saying, “Unless we will have an extremely cold and long winter, unless there will be any surprises in terms of what we have seen, for example Nord Stream pipeline explosion, Europe should go through this winter with some economic and social bruises.”

However he said the world will still need Russian oil, noting, “…the world still needs Russian oil to flow into the market for now. An 80%-90% is good and encouraging level in order to meet the demand.”