On Saturday Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering increasing its inflation forecast in January, to show that inflation will be close to the bank’s 2% target in fiscal 2023 and 2024.

The Bank of Japan had jolted markets earlier in the month when it widened its 10-year yield cap range. The move had been an attempt to straighten out distortions in the bond market. However some analysts speculated it might have been a signal the bank was going to begin turning away from its ultra-loose monetary policy.

As the bank now upgrades its inflation forecast, some analysts think it may be a further sign the Bank is preparing to shift its policy position, given Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said the central bank might discuss a policy shift if it can say it has its 2% inflation target with wage hikes within sight.

Nikkei reported that people familiar with discussions at the central bank said that the proposed adjustments to the forecast would show that in fiscal 2022 the core consumer price index would be around 3%, before then dropping to between 1.6% and 2% in fiscal 2023, and 2% in fiscal 2024.

Government data released last week showed core consumer prices in Japan for November, excluding fresh food, were up 3.7%. It was the highest reading since 1981.

However Kuroda denied there was a chance of an interest rate hike near-term, adding that recent price increases were driven by isolated increases in raw material costs, instead of a sudden spike in demand.

The Bank of Japan will release its latest quarterly growth and price outlook following its upcoming policy meeting on January 17-18.

Analysts are also looking closely to see if annual wage negotiations early next year will lead to sizable pay hikes, or if there is any revision to a 2013 policy accord between the BOJ and the government as Kuroda’s 10-year tenure comes to an end in April, as they look for any sign of a potential monetary policy shift.

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