Last week, key chocolate-making ingredient cocoa saw prices rise to a 12 year high, as concerns grow for future production while present stocks have already begun to dwindle.

In New York, cocoa futures peaked at $3,569 per ton, the highest price for the commodity since March 2011, before they settled to $3,552 per metric ton.

Experts say the skyrocketing prices come down to a declining global supply of the product.

Judith Ganes, a soft commodities analyst, said, “I don’t think we ever had three consecutive years of deficit,” adding that in West Africa, where most cocoa is produced, there is a real threat of declining production.

Analysts warn that the high cost of fertilizer is leading farmers to cut back on its use, as extreme weather is threatening harvests, and that is affecting the total production of the top producers in Ghana and Ivory Coast. They also point out the El Nino weather event means there will likely be a strong dry season from November on, in West Africa, and that too will reduce harvests.

In a Bloomberg analysis, Ivory Coast’s cocoa harvest will fall by 20% in 2023 year over year. In Ghana, it is forecast to be below the historical average. Chocolatiers Lindt and Hershey Co, have already issued warnings about potential future price increases.

Bloomberg noted in its analysis that this may result in not only fewer products and higher prices, but the products which are produced may see their quantities reduced, such as chocolate companies which will reduce the overall size of their chocolate bars.