According to an analysis by asset management firm Apollo, almost a third of all outstanding US government debt is poised to mature in the next 12 months.

Chief Economist Torsten Sløk shared a chart in September which showed that the share of US government debt poised to mature within the next 12 months has been steadily rising to near pandemic-era levels, and now stands at 31%.

That represents $7.6 trillion, which is a high not seen since the beginning of 2021, and which will work to drive up US rates. On top of that, public debt that is maturing in the near-term is equivalent to over one quarter of the US GDP. While impressive, this is below its peak in 2020, when it comprised a significantly larger share of the GDP.

The analysis comes amid exploding federal deficits in recent years, which have triggered a spike in the US national debt. In just the third quarter, the Treasury Department auctioned off $1 trillion in bonds.

It is possible the US debt coming due may continue to rise, following the latest quarterly refunding statement issued by the Treasury in early November. Contrary to expectation, the Treasury leaned more on T-bill issuance as it chose to slow longer-dated bond sales.

At the same time, the last year and a half has seen borrowing costs soar as the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes, which has increased the debt servicing costs for the government.

At the same time, the Fed’s quantitative tightening program has been placing pressure on rates by removing a major buyer from the bond market. So far the regulator has shed roughly $1 trillion of its debt holdings from its balance sheet.

Meanwhile, the sales of the fresh debt have proven more difficult than expected, as weak demand has plagued recent auctions.

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